The measured table said that a stock more than 50% below its 52-week high touched +20% at 1.74× and 1.26×. One of the strongest rows in the Academy, and the opposite of the "support" rule that fails.
2026 produced an extreme example.
SGPL, Power Generation & Distribution, 27 March 2026
| Reading | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | Rs 15.76 |
| Distance from 52-week high | more than 50% below |
| RSI | 44, mid-range, no drama |
| Volume vs average | 0.36×, barely trading |
| Position vs Bollinger bands | outside the upper band |
Note how unremarkable most of this looks. Low volume, ordinary RSI. Nothing here says "about to move" to the eye.
What followed
| Entry | Rs 15.76 |
| Reached +20% | 2 sessions later |
| Peak within 30 sessions | Rs 79.18, +402.4% |
| Close after 30 sessions | +402.4% |
This is the rare case where peak and close are identical. The stock did not give any of it back inside the window.
The same stock, ten days earlier and four days later
Our scan caught SGPL repeatedly, which lets us watch a campaign develop:
| Date | Entry | Setup | Peak |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Rs 14.28 | M10 Arm A (laggard) | +310.3% |
| 2026-03-27 | Rs 15.76 | deep discount | +402.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | Rs 19.07 | M10 Arm B (leader) | +356.7% |
| 2026-04-10 | Rs 29.73 | RSI 82 | +193.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | Rs 33.07 | breakout, 3.46× volume | +163.4% |
Watch the entry price climb and the remaining gain shrink, 310% → 402% → 356% → 193% → 163%.
This is the same point 786 made from the failure side. Every one of these entries was a real signal. Every later one was a worse deal. The signal tells you the stock is in play. It does not tell you that you are early.
The honest framing
SGPL returned 402%. Presenting that as what the method delivers would be dishonest, and it is exactly what most services do with their best case. The correction:
- The deep-discount rule measured 1.74× and 1.26×. A meaningful edge, not a life-changing one
- 59% of deep-discount observations in 2026 did not touch +20%
- Stocks are this cheap for reasons, and most stay cheap
SGPL is what the right tail of a 1.74× distribution looks like. The distribution also has a left tail, and you met it in the previous lesson.
Do this now, practical activity
- Open SuperCharts, load SGPL, and set the range to January-June 2026.
- Mark all five dates from the table above and note the price at each.
- For each, calculate what remained between that price and Rs 79.18.
What this drills: the habit of asking how much of this move is already behind me? before asking is this a good stock? The five rows above are the same company on the same trajectory, only the answer to the first question changed.
Measured: SGPL was more than 50% below its 52-week high at Rs 15.76 on 2026-03-27, reached +20% within 2 sessions and peaked at Rs 79.18 (+402.4%). Across 2026, 3,539 deep-discount observations touched +20% in 41.0% of cases, meaning 59% did not.