Lesson 1 of Reading a PSX Chart showed that buying at the 20-day low measured 0.86× and 0.87×, worse than random. Here is what that looked like in 2026, in rupees.
Across 2026 there were 4,012 measured observations of a liquid stock sitting at its 20-day low. 20.1% of them touched +20% within 30 sessions, against a 2026 base rate well above that.
These are the worst outcomes, selected by sorting on the 30-session close:
| Stock | Date | Entry | Peak | Close after 30 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLOV | 2026-03-09 | Rs 51.98 | +38.1% | −82.9% |
| UNITY | 2026-02-10 | Rs 19.80 | +1.0% | −59.6% |
| ESBL | 2026-02-26 | Rs 23.97 | +2.2% | −54.1% |
| TRSM | 2026-01-21 | Rs 18.66 | +7.1% | −53.5% |
| TSBL | 2026-01-27 | Rs 3.58 | +1.4% | −52.2% |
| CSIL | 2026-01-23 | Rs 6.78 | +3.1% | −48.1% |
Read the peak column
Five of these six never rose more than 7.1% at any point in 30 sessions. There was no rally to sell into, no bounce to exit on. The stock went down and kept going.
That is the specific danger of buying support that a hit rate does not capture. A 0.86× hit rate sounds like "slightly fewer winners". What it actually contains is a set of positions where no exit at any price above entry was ever available.
CLOV is worth examining
CLOV did rally, peak +38.1%, and it reached +20% in 9 sessions. Someone with a resting sell at +20% got out with a gain. Someone waiting for "confirmation of the bounce" watched it close the window at −82.9%.
One stock, one 30-session window, two outcomes 103 percentage points apart, decided entirely by whether an order was already sitting there.
In summary: the support-buying rule failed on the measurement and the worst cases were catastrophic rather than merely disappointing. Those two facts together are why this is the first lesson in the technical course rather than a footnote.
Why does everyone teach it anyway
Because it is the only rule that feels responsible. Buying something that has fallen feels like discipline; buying something that has risen feels like chasing. The measurement does not care how either one feels.
Do this now, practical activity
- Open SuperCharts and load CLOV. Set the range to cover March-June 2026.
- Find 9 March at Rs 51.98. Then find the peak, and then the level 30 sessions later.
- Ask yourself honestly: at the peak, would you have sold, or waited?
- Write the answer down before you look at what happened next.
Measured: across 4,012 observations of liquid PSX stocks at their 20-day low in 2026, 20.1% touched +20% within 30 sessions. The worst six by 30-session close ranged from −48.1% to −82.9%, and five of the six never rose more than 7.1% at any point.