Sab se mehngi ghalat-fehmi
Sab ka khayal: upper circuit laga hai, kal aur bhaagega, kal subah kharid lo.
Mushkil baat ye hai ke raw numbers par ye khayal sahi lagta hai. Pichle lesson waale sahi cap rule se, poore panel par:
| Agle din | Lock ke baad (n = 10,162) | Baaqi har bar (n = 1,018,379) |
|---|---|---|
| Median | +3.22% | 0.00% |
| Mean | +2.63% | +0.10% |
| Positive hone ka ratio | 62.2% | 35.7% |
[MEASURED 2026-07-31]
Aur clustering bhi bohat bari hai: jo stock aaj lock hua, wo 29.8% dafa kal bhi lock karta hai. Jo aaj lock nahi hua, wo kal sirf 0.70% dafa karta hai, yani 42.6x lift.
To median +3.22% hai aur round-trip cost takreeban 3.04pp. Hisaab se ye trade banta hai. Lekin ek sawal baaqi hai.
Ab wohi rows ek sawal par taqseem karein: kya aap kharid bhi sakte the?
Jo stock apne cap par baitha hai, us mein kharidaar hain, bechne wala koi nahi. Lock ka matlab hi yehi hai. Agar wo kal bhi locked khula, to aap ka order fill hi nahi hota.
| Agla session | Hissa | Median | Mean | Kharid sakte the? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dobara lock | 29.8% (n=3,031) | +10.00% | +10.94% | Nahi, koi seller nahi |
| Lock nahi hua | 70.2% (n=7,131) | +0.00% | -0.90% | Haan |
[MEASURED 2026-07-31]
Poora faida un hi bars mein hai jo aap kharid nahi sakte. Unhein nikal dein, aur jo 70% bachte hain, jahan order waqai fill hota, un ka median theek zero hai aur mean -0.90%, 3.04pp cost dene se pehle.
Sirf liquid names par (60-din ka average volume 10,000 shares se zyada): re-lock 31.7%, fillable median +0.00%, fillable mean -0.10%, n=4,617. Natija badalta nahi.
Sabaq, saaf lafzon mein
Lock ke baad ka momentum asli aur bohat bara hai. Lekin wo pohanch se bahar hai, kyunke jo cheez return banati hai, cap par koi seller na hona, wohi aap ko dusri taraf aane se rokti hai.
Isi liye ZEME ka apna rule hai: circuit waale din entry nahi, aur 3-5 din ka cooling period. Ye ehtiyaat nahi, hisaab hai.
Evidence · History · Confidence · Counterargument
Evidence, 10,162 cap-rule locks, agle session ke lock hone par taqseem. [MEASURED 2026-07-31]
History, is lesson ke pehle draft mein dheeli >= 7.4% threshold thi aur median +0.06% likha tha. Sahi definition ulta dikhati hai: momentum bohat bara hai. Natija wohi rehta hai, lock chase mat karo, lekin wajah poori badal gayi, "edge hai hi nahi" se "edge fill nahi hota" tak.
Confidence, high. Dono hisson mein n bara hai aur farq order-of-magnitude hai.
Counterargument, "agla session lock hua?" fillability ka proxy hai, measurement nahi. Kuch din stock unlocked khulta hai aur baad mein cap par pin hota hai, tab tez order fill ho sakta hai. Hamara intraday tape 2026-07-10 se shuru hota hai, is liye abhi ye measure nahi kar sakte.
Ye taleemi tajziya hai, investment advice nahi.