Feel nahi, count
WhatsApp groups mein lagta hai ke upper circuit har roz har jagah lag rahe hain. To gintay hain. Lekin ginne se pehle definition theek karni paregi, aur PSX ke zyada tar numbers yahin par ghalat ho jaate hain.
Pehle definition, kyunke isi se jawab 3.7 guna badal jata hai
Upper lock ka matlab "bara green din" nahi hai. Exchange har session ke liye ek hard ceiling deta hai:
cap = pichla close + MAX(pichle close ka 10%, Rs 1.00)Rs 1 waala floor wo hissa hai jo sab bhool jate hain. Rs 3.00 waale share ka cap Rs 4.00 hai, yani +33%, 10% nahi. Rs 200 waale share ka cap Rs 220 hai, theek +10%. Is liye koi bhi single percentage threshold circuit ko bayan nahi kar sakta: mehngi shares ke liye bohat dheela, sasti shares ke liye bohat tight.
Wohi 1,029,026 bars, teen tareeqon se ginay, teen bilkul mukhtalif markets:
| "Upper lock" ki definition | Locked bars | Rate | Farq |
|---|---|---|---|
chg_pct >= 7.4% | 37,676 | 3.661% | 3.7x zyada |
chg_pct >= 9.4% | 20,435 | 1.986% | 2.0x zyada |
| upar wala cap rule | 10,172 | 0.989% | , |
[MEASURED 2026-07-31]
Asli rate 0.989% hai, har 101 bars mein takreeban 1, har 27 mein nahi. Poore market mein aam din par sirf 3.7 asli locks lagte hain, aur median symbol 10.5 saal mein 14 baar lock karta hai, yani saal mein do baar ke qareeb, 9 nahi.
Ye sirf ginti ki ghalti nahi
Dheeli definition barabar ghalti nahi karti, wo har sasti share ko utha leti hai jo 8% chari lekin apne band ke qareeb bhi nahi thi. Aur yehi sasti shares hain jinke peeche log sab se zyada bhaagte hain. Yani ghalti theek wahan jama hoti hai jahan sab se zyada nuqsaan deti hai.
Base rate, pehla sawal jo hamesha poochna hai
Agar koi kehta hai "hum upper circuit dhoond lete hain", to sirf ek sawal maayne rakhta hai: ye cheez waise bhi kitni baar hoti hai? Base rate, definition aur window ke baghair "60% hit rate" ek number nahi, ek jumla hai.
Evidence · History · Confidence · Counterargument
Evidence, ek hi query, teenon definitions bilkul same rows par: 10,172 cap-rule locks / 1,029,026 bars = 0.989%. [MEASURED 2026-07-31]
History, is lesson ke pehle draft mein 3.660% likha tha (>= 7.4% threshold). Ginti sahi thi, definition ghalat thi. Hum ise chupa kar nahi, khul kar theek kar rahe hain.
Confidence, high. Cap formula exchange ka apna hisaab hai, koi estimate nahi.
Counterargument, ye closing par ginti hai. Jo stock din mein circuit ko chhu kar wapas aa gaya, wo shaamil nahi. Aur panel mein survivorship bias hai (delisted companies missing hain), to har positive number ko upper bound samjhein.
Ye taleemi tajziya hai, investment advice nahi.