Sab se zyada faisle ye number karta hai, koi signal nahi
Ek round trip - ek buy plus ek sell - ka kharcha lagbhag 3.04 pp hai. Ye figure ek assumption hai, measurement nahi - is lesson mein sirf yehi ek number maana hua hai. Neeche baaki sab measured hai.
Ab dekhte hain ke ek liquid PSX stock ko fix number of sessions rakhne par asal mein hota kya hai - panel ke har stock aur har din ka average:
| hold | GROSS average | 3.04 pp ke BAAD (NET) | kitne holds ne cost cross ki | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 sessions | +0.496% | -2.544% | 25.793% | 667,663 |
| 20 sessions | +1.972% | -1.068% | 36.886% | 661,978 |
Teesra column parhein, pehla nahi
Ek hafte ka average hold +0.496% gross banata hai aur -2.544% net. Sirf 25.793% one-week holds cost se aage nikle - matlab 74.207% nahi nikle.
Ye ZEME ke signals ke baare mein baat nahi hai. Ye market plus us ko chhoone ke kharche ke baare mein hai. Ye har one-week trade par lagta hai, chahe mashwara kisi ka bhi ho.
Signal par is ka kya asar hai
Ye ek bar set karta hai. Agar koi signal aap ka one-week return average se 1 pp behtar kar de, to wo waqai acha signal hai - aur phir bhi 5 din par paisa doobta hai, kyunke shuruaat hi -2.544% ghaate se hoti hai.
Isi liye ZEME ka apna Operator Score ek flag ke saath chalta hai: tradeable_net_of_cost: false. Feature asal farq measure karta hai - lekin koi bhi farq itna bara nahi ke us horizon par round trip ka kharcha nikal sake.
Hold ko 20 sessions tak barhane se behtari aati hai - 36.886% cost cross karte hain - lekin average hold phir bhi -1.068% net rehta hai.
Seedhi baat
Cost aakhir mein minus karne wali cheez nahi hai. Ye pehla filter hai, aur ye analysis shuru hone se pehle hi trades ki ek poori qism ko khatam kar deta hai. PSX ki zyada tar short-horizon strategies is liye fail nahi hoteen ke signal ghalat tha. Wo is liye fail hoti hain ke signal 3.04 pp se kam se sahi tha.
Evidence - History - Confidence - Counterargument
Confidence - arithmetic par bohot ooncha, exact cost par darmiyana. Aap ka apna brokerage, size aur slippage 3.04 pp ko upar neeche karega, aur NET column ka har number us ke saath hilega.
Counterargument - sab se mazboot aitraaz: ye har stock aur har din ka average hai. Agar aap sirf chuni hui thori si names trade karte hain to ye jaan boojh kar ghalat population hai. Achi selection ko ye average beat karna chahiye - selection ka maqsad hi yehi hai. Ye table sirf wo farsh batata hai jo selection ko cross karna hai, kisi ek trade ki peshangoi nahi.
Ye ZEME Academy ka taleemi tajziya hai - investment advice nahi, koi recommendation nahi. Har number guzri hui history hai, aur history peshangoi nahi hoti.
Saboot - har number ka source
Is lesson ka har number yahan apni definition, apne sample size, apni window aur us exact query ke saath mojood hai jis se wo bana. Aap khud dobara chala kar dekh sakte hain.
round_trip_cost = 3.04 pp (n = not measured)
- what it is: assumed all-in cost of one buy plus one sell, in percentage points
- window: constant
- source: reference_backtest_methodology
- note: an ASSUMPTION, not a measurement - it is the one number on this page that was not derived from the panel
- how it was computed (pandas over the panel, not SQL):
``text fixed house assumption, [[reference_backtest_methodology]] D2 ``
cost5_gross = +0.496% (n = 667,663)
- what it is: mean GROSS return of holding a liquid PSX stock for 5 sessions, averaged over every stock and every day in the panel
- window: 2016-01-01..2026-07-30
- source: zeme_uat_panel.parquet
- how it was computed (pandas over the panel, not SQL):
``text Over liquid panel rows, the distribution of fwd_ret_5_e0 and fwd_ret_20_e0 against the 3.04 pp round-trip cost. ``
cost5_net = -2.544% (n = 667,663)
- what it is: the same average AFTER the 3.04 pp round trip
- window: 2016-01-01..2026-07-30
- source: zeme_uat_panel.parquet
- how it was computed (pandas over the panel, not SQL):
``text Over liquid panel rows, the distribution of fwd_ret_5_e0 and fwd_ret_20_e0 against the 3.04 pp round-trip cost. ``
cost5_clear_rate = 25.793% (n = 667,663)
- what it is: share of 5-session holds that gained more than the 3.04 pp round trip - i.e. actually finished ahead
- window: 2016-01-01..2026-07-30
- source: zeme_uat_panel.parquet
- how it was computed (pandas over the panel, not SQL):
``text Over liquid panel rows, the distribution of fwd_ret_5_e0 and fwd_ret_20_e0 against the 3.04 pp round-trip cost. ``
cost20_gross = +1.972% (n = 661,978)
- what it is: mean GROSS return of holding a liquid PSX stock for 20 sessions, averaged over every stock and every day in the panel
- window: 2016-01-01..2026-07-30
- source: zeme_uat_panel.parquet
- how it was computed (pandas over the panel, not SQL):
``text Over liquid panel rows, the distribution of fwd_ret_5_e0 and fwd_ret_20_e0 against the 3.04 pp round-trip cost. ``
cost20_net = -1.068% (n = 661,978)
- what it is: the same average AFTER the 3.04 pp round trip
- window: 2016-01-01..2026-07-30
- source: zeme_uat_panel.parquet
- how it was computed (pandas over the panel, not SQL):
``text Over liquid panel rows, the distribution of fwd_ret_5_e0 and fwd_ret_20_e0 against the 3.04 pp round-trip cost. ``
cost20_clear_rate = 36.886% (n = 661,978)
- what it is: share of 20-session holds that gained more than the 3.04 pp round trip - i.e. actually finished ahead
- window: 2016-01-01..2026-07-30
- source: zeme_uat_panel.parquet
- how it was computed (pandas over the panel, not SQL):
``text Over liquid panel rows, the distribution of fwd_ret_5_e0 and fwd_ret_20_e0 against the 3.04 pp round-trip cost. ``
cost5_lose_rate = 74.207% (n = 667,663)
- what it is: share of 5-session holds that did NOT clear the round trip
- window: 2016-01-01..2026-07-30
- source: zeme_uat_panel.parquet
- how it was computed (pandas over the panel, not SQL):
``text Over liquid panel rows, the distribution of fwd_ret_5_e0 and fwd_ret_20_e0 against the 3.04 pp round-trip cost. ``
Ye ZEME Academy ka taleemi tajziya hai - investment advice nahi, koi recommendation nahi. Har number guzri hui history hai, aur history peshangoi nahi hoti.