A Campaign Phase™ is ZEME's answer to one question: where is this stock in an operator's cycle?
On PSX, a large share of small and mid-cap moves are campaigns, someone accumulates quietly, then moves the price, then sells into the strength they created. ZEME sorts every stock into one of nine phases every day.
Here they are, with the measured next-day upper-lock rate for each, over 20 months of liquid stocks, against a base rate of 3.81%.
| # | Phase | What it means | Next-day lock rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WATCHING | On the radar, nothing committed | 3.89% (1.02×) |
| 2 | WATCH_ONLY | Tracked, but below the action floor | , |
| 3 | EARLY LOAD | First accumulation appearing | 2.54% (0.67×) |
| 4 | LOADING | Accumulation underway | 0.87% (0.23×) |
| 5 | FULLY LOADED | Operator holds the position, not yet moving | 1.40% (0.37×) |
| 6 | LAUNCHING | The move is starting | 6.87% (1.81×, the best) |
| 7 | RUNNING | The move is in progress | 5.19% (1.36×) |
| 8 | DISTRIBUTING | Operator is selling into strength | 4.41% (1.16×) |
| 9 | EXITED | The operator has left | 2.82% (0.74×) |
Read that table carefully, because it contains a surprise
The phase with the lowest lock rate is LOADING, 0.87%, less than a quarter of the base rate. The phase that sounds most exciting to buy is measurably the quietest.
That is not a flaw in the taxonomy; it is the taxonomy working. A stock being accumulated is a stock whose price is being held down while someone buys. Locks come later, at LAUNCHING (6.87%, the highest) and RUNNING (5.19%).
If you take one thing from this lesson: LOADING is when to watch. LAUNCHING is when it moves. The gap between them is 8× in measured lock rate.
An honest limit
These are next-day lock rates, not returns. A lock is a stock hitting its upper circuit. A useful, visible event, but not the same as a profit. And phases are re-computed daily from behaviour, so a stock can move between them as new data arrives. In our own audit we found phase labels flip more often than we would like on thinly-traded names, which is why the phase is one input among several and never a buy signal on its own.
Do this now, practical activity
- Open the Signals page and note the phase shown against each stock.
- Pick one stock in LOADING and one in LAUNCHING.
- Open SuperCharts for both and compare the last 30 sessions of volume.
- Ask yourself which one looks more "exciting", then look at the table above again.
Measured: across 20 months of liquid PSX stocks against a 3.81% base rate, LAUNCHING produced a 6.87% next-day upper-lock rate (1.81×, the highest of the nine phases) while LOADING produced 0.87% (0.23×, the lowest).