Most people look for a stock that is "steady". We measured what steady actually does.
We took 73,159 stock-months across 10.6 years and asked one question of each: did this stock touch +20% at any point in the next 30 sessions? Base rate across everything: 23.0%.
Then we sorted by how far the stock sat from its own 20-day average:
| Where the stock sat | Touched +20% |
|---|---|
| More than 10% BELOW its 20-day average | 35.6% |
| 5% below to 0 (hugging the average) | 13.9% |
| 0 to 5% above | 16.2% |
| More than 20% ABOVE its average | 39.2% |
Read the middle row again. A stock sitting quietly on its own 20-day average touched +20% 13.9% of the time - barely half the base rate, and roughly a third as often as a stock at either extreme.
This is a U-shape, not a ladder. Both ends pay. The middle is where nothing happens.
This runs against instinct for a reason. A stock near its average looks calm, cheap to enter and low-risk. It is genuinely lower risk. It is also, measurably, the least likely place for a 20% move to begin - because a 20% move requires the stock to already be out of equilibrium, and this one is in it.
Measured: stocks within 5% of their 20-day average touched +20% in 13.9% of 14,049 cases, against a 23.0% base rate over 73,159 cases (2016-01 to 2026-06).