Hamare apne headline number ki hadd
ZEME-101 upper-lock ka base rate closing definition par sikhata hai: lock wo session hai jo apne cap par band hua. Us definition ki ek hadd hai, aur ye lesson bilkul theek theek naapta hai ke us hadd ke doosri taraf kitna kuch hai.
Hamare intraday forensic record mein jin sessions mein stock ne din ke doran waqai apna upper cap chhua:
414 mein se 202 = 48.792% wahin band bhi hue.
Yani jo cheez band tak pohanchti hai, us ka lagbhag aadha hissa ghanti se pehle wapas de deta hai.
Is se do cheezein badalti hain
Ek - "aaj upper circuit laga" us se bohot kamzor jumla hai jitna sunai deta hai. Is sample par ye taqreeban sikka uchhalne jaisa hai ke stock close par wahan hai ya nahi. Jab aap koi message parhte hain ke falan stock ne "circuit" kiya, to aap ko ek aise waqiye ke baare mein bataya ja raha hai jo taqreeban aadhi baar palat jata hai.
Do - hamara closing base rate swing horizon ke liye SAHI number hai aur intraday ke liye GHALAT. Closing definition ye kam kar ke batati hai ke band kitni baar chhua gaya. Agar aap ka horizon ek din hai, to aap ka number touch rate hai, close rate nahi. Definition ko faisle se match karna zaroori hai.
Ye kab hota hai, aur us waqt tak kitna trade ho chuka hota hai
49.517% cap touches market khulne ke 45 minute ke andar hue, aur jis lamhe cap chhua gaya us waqt tak us din ka average 25.480% volume pehle hi trade ho chuka tha. Waqia din mein jaldi hota hai, aur din ki zyada tar liquidity us price par aap ke liye mojood nahi hoti jo aap ne dekhi thi.
Evidence - History - Confidence - Counterargument
Confidence - darmiyana, aur wajah sample hai. Ye forensic record 414 touches par khara hai - is course ke baaki hisson ke peeche mojood das saal ke price panel ke muqable bohot chhota window. Is "lagbhag aadha" wale figure ko ishara samjhein, constant nahi.
Counterargument - sab se mazboot aitraaz: ye record naya aur chhota hai, aur cap-hold ka rawaiya market regime ke saath badalta hai. Thanda ya zyada speculative market is ko kaafi hila sakta hai. Isi liye ye apne n ke saath shaya kiya gaya hai - taake aap khud dekh sakein ke ye dawa kitna wazan utha sakta hai.
Ye ZEME Academy ka taleemi tajziya hai - investment advice nahi, koi recommendation nahi. Har number guzri hui history hai, aur history peshangoi nahi hoti.
Saboot - har number ka source
Is lesson ka har number yahan apni definition, apne sample size, apni window aur us exact query ke saath mojood hai jis se wo bana. Aap khud dobara chala kar dekh sakte hain.
touch_count = 414 (n = 414)
- what it is: sessions observed touching the upper cap intraday
- window: 2026-07-15..2026-07-31
- source: psx_data.db:lock_forensics
- the exact query:
``sql SELECT COUNT(*), SUM(held_close), SUM(CASE WHEN mins_to_lock<=45 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END), AVG(pct_before) FROM lock_forensics WHERE touched_cap=1 ``
touch_held_count = 202 (n = 414)
- what it is: of those, the number that closed at the cap
- window: 2026-07-15..2026-07-31
- source: psx_data.db:lock_forensics
- the exact query:
``sql SELECT COUNT(*), SUM(held_close), SUM(CASE WHEN mins_to_lock<=45 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END), AVG(pct_before) FROM lock_forensics WHERE touched_cap=1 ``
touch_hold_rate = 48.792% (n = 414)
- what it is: of the sessions in which a stock actually TOUCHED its upper cap intraday, the share that still CLOSED locked
- window: 2026-07-15..2026-07-31
- source: psx_data.db:lock_forensics
- the exact query:
``sql SELECT COUNT(*), SUM(held_close), SUM(CASE WHEN mins_to_lock<=45 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END), AVG(pct_before) FROM lock_forensics WHERE touched_cap=1 ``
touch_early_rate = 49.517% (n = 414)
- what it is: share of cap touches that happened within 45 minutes of the open
- window: 2026-07-15..2026-07-31
- source: psx_data.db:lock_forensics
- the exact query:
``sql SELECT COUNT(*), SUM(held_close), SUM(CASE WHEN mins_to_lock<=45 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END), AVG(pct_before) FROM lock_forensics WHERE touched_cap=1 ``
touch_pct_before = 25.480% (n = 414)
- what it is: average share of the day's volume already traded BEFORE the cap was touched
- window: 2026-07-15..2026-07-31
- source: psx_data.db:lock_forensics
- the exact query:
``sql SELECT COUNT(*), SUM(held_close), SUM(CASE WHEN mins_to_lock<=45 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END), AVG(pct_before) FROM lock_forensics WHERE touched_cap=1 ``
Ye ZEME Academy ka taleemi tajziya hai - investment advice nahi, koi recommendation nahi. Har number guzri hui history hai, aur history peshangoi nahi hoti.